Smooth-Evolution
0x1359911d098bf507069e7e22370e6f6cae3f092e
Smooth-Evolution: +$353 on 16 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 75% (95% range 51%–90%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$353
return +1.1%
Settled bets
16
$33K staked
Won
75.0%
95% range 51%–90%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 11 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$316
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- +$668
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY Yes
@ 84¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? |
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | $1.0K |
| Oct 9 | SELL No
@ 84¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | $4.2K |
| Oct 7 | BUY No
@ 84¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | $3.1K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Yes
@ 82¢
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? |
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | $2.4K |
| Oct 6 | SELL Yes
@ 60¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? |
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | $2.4K |
| Oct 6 | BUY No
@ 78¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October? |
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October? | $1.1K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Yes
@ 93¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? |
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | $3.7K |
| Oct 3 | BUY No
@ 95¢
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31? |
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31? | $1.6K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.