Melodic-Alfalfa
Skill vs luck
Melodic-Alfalfa on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 0% (95% range 0%–79%) · profit −$157. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Melodic-Alfalfa: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x9797d6c41551f8fb64f3829f6d1b861f1c13c193. Data CC BY 4.0.
Melodic-Alfalfa: −$157 on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 18 – Oct 3
- −$157
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | SELL Yes @ 90¢ | Will there be no Hormuz agreement? ↗ | $6.3K |
| Sep 24 | SELL No @ 92¢ | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? ↗ | $1.8K |
| Aug 25 | BUY No
@ 32¢
Will Estral Esports Win Circuito Desafiante 2026 Split 2 |
Will Estral Esports Win Circuito Desafiante 2026 Split 2 | $1.7K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?