Bountiful-Mare
Skill vs luck
Bountiful-Mare on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 10%–91%) · profit −$1.8K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 2, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Bountiful-Mare: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 2, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xe176897ced0ae142dda0f98dd949338fffb97f65. Data CC BY 4.0.
Bountiful-Mare: −$1.8K on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 3
- −$2.2K
- Sep 3 – Sep 18
- +$467
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | BUY No @ 49¢ | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 30 | BUY No @ 58¢ | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? ↗ | $5.2K |
| Oct 30 | BUY No @ 39¢ | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? ↗ | $5.0K |
| Oct 30 | BUY No
@ 44¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? | $2.1K |
| Sep 16 | BUY No @ 93¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? ↗ | $6.0K |
| Sep 3 | BUY No @ 55¢ | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026? ↗ | $2.2K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.