Downright-Website
0x836ffd95ef3cf3c7987612279b2152b11ce6906e
Downright-Website: −$12K on 13 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 69% (95% range 42%–87%). Skill or luck: worse than the odds.
Profit
−$12K
return −36.6%
Settled bets
13
$32K staked
Won
69.2%
95% range 42%–87%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Worse than the odds. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 12 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$3.9K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$8.0K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$16
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 99.34¢
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | $1.0K |
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 99.6¢
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | $3.5K |
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 95¢
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? |
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | $1.8K |
| Oct 6 | BUY No
@ 99.3¢
Will Mark Carney win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
Will Mark Carney win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | $2.1K |
| Oct 6 | BUY No
@ 99¢
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | $1.0K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Yes
@ 84¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? |
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | $1.2K |
| Oct 3 | BUY No
@ 97¢
Will Trump visit Greenland by October 31? |
Will Trump visit Greenland by October 31? | $1.7K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Yes
@ 79¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? |
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | $1.6K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.