Rowdy-Evening-Universe
Skill vs luck
Rowdy-Evening-Universe on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 40% (95% range 12%–77%) · profit +$2.3K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 2, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Rowdy-Evening-Universe: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 2, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x690bfe39089e61f674b8f88d89511c9eff90bd2c. Data CC BY 4.0.
Rowdy-Evening-Universe: +$2.3K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 40% (95% range 12%–77%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 3
- +$1.1K
- Sep 3 – Sep 18
- +$1.8K
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- −$680
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | BUY Yes @ 84¢ | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? ↗ | $2.3K |
| Oct 30 | SELL Yes @ 83¢ | US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? ↗ | $1.9K |
| Oct 16 | SELL Yes @ 84¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $3.6K |
| Sep 16 | BUY Yes @ 56¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $2.3K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.