Tan-Wharf
Skill vs luck
Tan-Wharf on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 60% (95% range 23%–88%) · profit +$16K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Tan-Wharf: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x5e55a65c4017ee33fd00518e3e7684c7057e8ffd. Data CC BY 4.0.
Tan-Wharf: +$16K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 60% (95% range 23%–88%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 3
- −$326
- Sep 3 – Sep 18
- −$51
- Sep 18 – Oct 3
- +$17K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | SELL Yes @ 90¢ | Will there be no Hormuz agreement? ↗ | $2.5K |
| Sep 20 | SELL Under
@ 48¢
Eagles vs. Titans: O/U 39.5 |
Eagles vs. Titans: O/U 39.5 | $8.2K |
| Sep 20 | SELL Broncos @ 51¢ | Spread: Broncos (-2.5) ↗ | $8.7K |
| Sep 11 | BUY Yes @ 39¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? ↗ | $1.4K |
| Sep 6 | SELL No @ 68¢ | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? ↗ | $1.4K |
| Aug 25 | SELL No @ 87¢ | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? ↗ | $2.2K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?