Polymarket market · Other

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Open as of the last weekly run · See it on Polymarket ↗

10 whales put $108K into this market since Aug 21, 86% of their buying on Yes. It hadn't resolved as of the last weekly run.

The whales on this market

10 whales
Whale · recordBackedBoughtSold
Pessimistic-Abdomen
10 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 52¢ $85K —
Terrific-Battleship
3 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 44¢ $5.9K —
Lined-Protein
2 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $4.1K
Demanding-Chopsticks
14 settled bets Beat the odds*
No @ 84¢ $4.0K —
Altruistic-Gambling
4 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $2.4K
Odd-Deformation
4 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $1.7K
0x4158…ce9f
no settled record
No @ 49¢ $1.5K —
Light-Front
4 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 53¢ $1.5K —
0x0b21…deb6
no settled record
Yes @ 52¢ $1.0K —
0xc932…e6a5
no settled record
No @ 58¢ $1.0K —

Where the whale money went

  1. Yes
    $86K
    86% of whale buying · 2 buyers
  2. No
    $14K
    14% of whale buying · 5 buyers · $8.1K sold

From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Aug 21 to Oct 8, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the weekly run. How profit is counted.

Results and records from the weekly run (1791223421).

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed