Excellent-Mythology
Skill vs luck
Excellent-Mythology on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 34%–100%) · profit +$1.3K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Excellent-Mythology: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x241ff966f22080fbee3928e194763e575847e15a. Data CC BY 4.0.
Excellent-Mythology: +$1.3K on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 34%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 3
- +$1.3K
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- +$27
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | BUY Yes @ 99¢ | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17? ↗ | $2.2K |
| Oct 17 | SELL Yes @ 90¢ | Will there be no Hormuz agreement? ↗ | $2.5K |
| Aug 21 | SELL Yes @ 87¢ | US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? ↗ | $1.3K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?