Polymarket market · Politics & macro

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Resolved: Yes won · See it on Polymarket ↗

42 whales put $319K into this market since Aug 20, 96% of their buying on Yes. Yes won. Of the 22 whales whose whole position we captured, 19 made +$19K and 3 lost −$5.2K: +$13K between them.

The whales on this market

biggest 25 of 42
Whale · recordBackedBoughtSold Made on it
Hideous-Leg
5 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $64K —
Fair-Ingredient
4 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 94¢ $33K $14K +$1.4K
Mediocre-Optimisation-Flock
6 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 89¢ $32K — +$4.1K
Similar-Balloonist
8 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 92¢ $30K — +$2.6K
Personal-Bake
18 settled bets Can't tell from luck
Yes @ 89¢ $23K — +$2.8K
Innocent-Conference
2 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $21K —
Imaginative-River
37 settled bets Can't tell from luck
Yes @ 91¢ $12K — +$1.2K
Knowledgeable-Bough
2 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $9.5K —
Dependable-Anterior
1 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $8.2K —
Meek-Shore-Armchair
2 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 93¢ $7.7K — +$578
Sweet-Failure
2 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $7.0K —
Common-Nitrogen
8 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 79¢ $4.8K — +$1.3K
Cute-Farmland
7 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 76¢ $4.0K — +$1.3K
Grubby-Chandelier
9 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 99.9¢ $3.1K — +$3
Automatic-Tabernacle-Plant
1 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 92¢ $2.8K — +$241
0x0f34…7684
21 settled bets Can't tell from luck
No @ 24¢ $2.8K — −$2.8K
Prestigious-Still
3 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $2.7K —
Fatal-Closet
3 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 15¢ $1.4K $1.2K −$247
Front-Indigence
1 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $2.5K —
0x5feb…693a
1 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 35¢ $2.2K — −$2.2K
Able-Forestry
1 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $2.2K —
Tempting-Wellbeing
1 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $2.1K —
Bad-Fool-Enrollment
2 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 71¢ $2.1K — +$854
Unfit-Corral
1 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 93¢ $2.0K — +$150
Complex-Childhood
1 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $1.8K —

Where the whale money went

  1. Yes won
    $165K
    96% of whale buying · 19 buyers · $135K sold
  2. No lost
    $6.4K
    4% of whale buying · 3 buyers · $12K sold
  3. Yes lost
    $0
    0% of whale buying · 0 buyers · $1.3K sold

From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Aug 20 to Sep 16, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the weekly run. “Made on it” is what each whale took out plus what its shares paid at the end ($1 for the winner, nothing for the rest), counting only trades we captured. A dash means it sold more than we saw it buy, so part of its position is missing and it's left out of the totals. How profit is counted.

Results and records from the weekly run (1791223421).

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed