Fair-Ingredient
0xaf1555f0edbcf21cf66caf779fa84b8396cf5dd2
Fair-Ingredient: −$5.9K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 25% (95% range 5%–70%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
−$5.9K
return −14.9%
Settled bets
4
$40K staked
Won
25.0%
95% range 5%–70%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$5.9K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16 | BUY No
@ 99.7¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? |
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | $53K |
| Sep 16 | BUY No
@ 50¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | $2.5K |
| Sep 16 | BUY No
@ 50¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | $2.5K |
| Sep 16 | BUY No
@ 50¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | $2.5K |
| Sep 16 | BUY No
@ 35¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? |
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | $2.8K |
| Sep 16 | SELL Yes
@ 35¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | $1.0K |
| Sep 16 | BUY No
@ 15¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | $3.5K |
| Sep 16 | BUY Yes
@ 12¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | $2.4K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.