Sweet-Failure
0xecaa8806a9a05049d7d5260a33dc924220e377a9
Sweet-Failure: −$357 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
−$357
return −27.4%
Settled bets
2
$1.3K staked
Won
50.0%
95% range 10%–91%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$5.3K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$4.9K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4 | BUY Yes
@ 64¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | $2.8K |
| Sep 16 | SELL Yes
@ 11¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | $6.2K |
| Sep 9 | BUY Yes
@ 46¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | $1.3K |
| Aug 28 | SELL Yes
@ 57¢
Fed rate hike in 2026? |
Fed rate hike in 2026? | $7.0K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.