Similar-Balloonist
0x7b02b2bac2a30ed5e40b7094e734f4c3dc2a4991
Similar-Balloonist: +$60K on 8 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 63% (95% range 31%–86%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
+$60K
return +31.4%
Settled bets
8
$190K staked
Won
62.5%
95% range 31%–86%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 7 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$49K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$10K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | BUY No
@ 21¢
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? |
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | $1.4K |
| Sep 17 | BUY No
@ 48¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? |
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | $15K |
| Sep 16 | BUY No
@ 47¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? |
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | $7.8K |
| Sep 16 | BUY Yes
@ 86¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | $36K |
| Sep 14 | BUY Yes
@ 92¢
Fed rate hike in 2026? |
Fed rate hike in 2026? | $30K |
| Sep 11 | BUY No
@ 81¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | $8.1K |
| Sep 5 | SELL No
@ 99.6¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | $203K |
| Sep 1 | BUY No
@ 59¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | $4.4K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.