Polymarket market · Politics & macro

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Resolved: No won · See it on Polymarket ↗

8 whales put $73K into this market since Aug 21, 96% of their buying on No. No won. Of the 6 whales whose whole position we captured, 5 made +$51 and 1 lost −$10: +$41 between them.

The whales on this market

8 whales
Whale · recordBackedBoughtSold Made on it
0x3e83…5e31
2 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 99.9¢ $11K $13K —
Fatherly-Cobweb
1 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 99.9¢ $10K $10K −$10
Velvety-Burn
103 settled bets Can't tell from luck
No @ 99.86¢ $8.6K — +$12
Cheery-Preparation
11 settled bets Can't tell from luck
No @ 99.8¢ $5.0K — +$10
Decent-Drop
3 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 99.7¢ $5.0K — +$15
Arctic-Kickoff
5 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 99.9¢ $4.0K — +$4
Angelic-Enemy-Weeder
10 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 99.7¢ $3.3K — +$10
Distorted-Spiral
1 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $3.0K —

Where the whale money went

  1. No won
    $46K
    96% of whale buying · 7 buyers · $25K sold
  2. No lost
    $1.7K
    4% of whale buying · 1 buyer · $1.1K sold

From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Aug 21 to Sep 11, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the weekly run. “Made on it” is what each whale took out plus what its shares paid at the end ($1 for the winner, nothing for the rest), counting only trades we captured. A dash means it sold more than we saw it buy, so part of its position is missing and it's left out of the totals. How profit is counted.

Results and records from the weekly run (1791223421).

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed