Arctic-Kickoff
0xa66790e2b0075e73c3781ddaf1d0b875a3aaceb3
Arctic-Kickoff: +$1.1K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 57%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
+$1.1K
return +10.0%
Settled bets
5
$11K staked
Won
100.0%
95% range 57%–100%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$17
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$1.1K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$5
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Trump out as President by September 30? |
Trump out as President by September 30? | $1.6K |
| Sep 23 | BUY No
@ 99.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | $2.3K |
| Sep 22 | BUY No
@ 99.7¢
Trump out as President by September 30? |
Trump out as President by September 30? | $1.2K |
| Sep 22 | SELL No
@ 76¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | $1.0K |
| Sep 10 | BUY Yes
@ 65¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | $2.1K |
| Sep 2 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | $4.0K |
| Aug 28 | BUY No
@ 96¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027? |
Xi Jinping out before 2027? | $2.0K |
| Aug 21 | BUY No
@ 99.3¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in August? |
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in August? | $1.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.