Polymarket market · Other
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?
Resolved: Yes won · See it on Polymarket ↗
15 whales traded $51K on this market since Oct 15, 97% of their buying on Yes. Copying their buys off the order book we recorded about 2 minutes later would have cost 0.5¢ more per share, with 100% of the size there to buy. Yes won, with 97% of the whale buying on it. Of the 13 whales whose whole position we captured, 12 made +$1.1K and 1 lost −$1.3K: −$110 between them. Biggest win: Superficial-Darkness, +$262 on Yes. Biggest loss: Frozen-Stepsister, −$1.3K on No.
The whales on this market
15 whales| Whale · record | Backed | Bought | Sold | Made on it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plush-Tutu
14 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 99.72¢ | $10K | — | +$29 |
| 0x7217…a6c4
3 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 98¢ | $9.5K | — | +$220 |
| Superficial-Darkness
2 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 96¢ | $6.3K | — | +$262 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Camp
30 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 97¢ | $4.2K | — | +$151 |
| Leading-Pitcher
14 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 99.9¢ | $3.5K | — | +$3 |
| Capital-Melody-Meatball
11 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 99.2¢ | $3.0K | — | +$25 |
| Accurate-Spirit
7 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 95¢ | $2.3K | — | +$108 |
| Annual-Institute
2 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 99.5¢ | $2.3K | — | +$11 |
| Sharp-Astrakhan
3 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 93¢ | $2.0K | — | +$147 |
| Proud-Molasses
2 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 96¢ | $1.9K | — | +$80 |
| Frozen-Stepsister
1 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 6¢ | $1.3K | — | −$1.3K |
| Pleasant-Complexity
2 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 94¢ | $1.2K | — | +$74 |
| Rosy-Idea
1 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 97¢ | $1.2K | — | +$34 |
| Digital-Individual-Sociology
1 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $1.1K | — |
| Disgusting-Shopping-Trousers
1 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $1.0K | — |
Where the whale money went
-
Yes won$48K97% of whale buying · 12 buyers · $2.1K sold
-
No lost$1.3K3% of whale buying · 1 buyer
From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Oct 15 to Oct 18, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the daily run. “Made on it” is what each whale took out plus what its shares paid at the end ($1 for the winner, nothing for the rest), counting only trades we captured. A dash means it sold more than we saw it buy, so part of its position is missing and it's left out of the totals. How profit is counted.
Results and records from the run (1792393220).
More other markets the whales bet on
All Other →| Market | Whale money | Whales | Result | Last whale bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Real Madrid CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? | $54K | 3 | Won: No | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | $649K | 78 | Open | |
| Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-10-18? | $75K | 16 | Won: Yes | |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? | $80K | 8 | Open | |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-18? | $58K | 14 | Won: Yes | |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team (BO5) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs | $155K | 36 | Won: FURIA | |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | $83K | 30 | Open | |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | $201K | 62 | Open |
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?