Annual-Institute
Skill vs luck
Annual-Institute on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 34%–100%) · profit +$31. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 19, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Annual-Institute: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 19, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x116b1c7c3e56748b9e95ddb14f22483e8180cf8e. Data CC BY 4.0.
Annual-Institute: +$31 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 34%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 4 – Oct 19
- +$31
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 | BUY Yes @ 99.5¢ | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18? ↗ | $2.3K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Yes @ 99¢ | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17? ↗ | $1.8K |
| Sep 23 | BUY No @ 96¢ | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? ↗ | $2.4K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?