Pleasant-Complexity
Skill vs luck
Pleasant-Complexity on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 34%–100%) · profit +$126. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 19, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Pleasant-Complexity: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 19, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x50b0de750ec7f757250d483ebb86e1e9e61e1640. Data CC BY 4.0.
Pleasant-Complexity: +$126 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 34%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$52
- Oct 4 – Oct 19
- +$74
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15 | BUY Yes @ 94¢ | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18? ↗ | $1.2K |
| Sep 2 | BUY No @ 78¢ | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? ↗ | $1.6K |
| Aug 21 | BUY No
@ 96¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | $1.1K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?