Superficial-Darkness
Skill vs luck
Superficial-Darkness on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 10%–91%) · profit −$3.5K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 19, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Superficial-Darkness: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 19, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x21f41e8e53a9ea8f9eacf4db99961e37f610b8ad. Data CC BY 4.0.
Superficial-Darkness: −$3.5K on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$3.7K
- Oct 4 – Oct 19
- +$262
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | BUY Yes @ 96¢ | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18? ↗ | $6.3K |
| Sep 1 | BUY Yes
@ 86¢
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1? |
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1? | $1.7K |
| Aug 31 | BUY Yes
@ 75¢
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1? |
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1? | $2.1K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?