Leading-Pitcher
Skill vs luck
Leading-Pitcher on Polymarket: 14 settled bets · won 86% (95% range 60%–96%) · profit −$1.2K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 19, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Leading-Pitcher: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 19, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xdeb264d4ee0fcb83d86d0eb242cca86d4a5b9aa8. Data CC BY 4.0.
Leading-Pitcher: −$1.2K on 14 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 86% (95% range 60%–96%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 13 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$16
- Sep 4 – Sep 19
- −$1.2K
- Oct 4 – Oct 19
- +$22
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 | BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18? ↗ | $3.5K |
| Oct 12 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? |
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | $6.0K |
| Oct 12 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? |
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | $4.0K |
| Oct 8 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? |
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | $5.0K |
| Oct 8 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? |
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | $3.7K |
| Sep 17 | BUY No
@ 99.88¢
Will White House post 140-159 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? |
Will White House post 140-159 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | $1.4K |
| Sep 12 | BUY No
@ 97¢
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026? |
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026? | $3.2K |
| Sep 12 | BUY No
@ 99.61¢
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026? |
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026? | $6.7K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?