Polymarket market · Other

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?

Open as of the last weekly run · See it on Polymarket ↗

20 whales put $157K into this market since Oct 7, 86% of their buying on Yes. It hadn't resolved as of the last weekly run.

The whales on this market

20 whales
Whale · recordBackedBoughtSold
Hefty-Metabolite
26 settled bets Can't tell from luck
Yes @ 94¢ $2.1K $32K
Grounded-Depression
30 settled bets Can't tell from luck
Yes @ 91¢ $5.5K $24K
Fearful-Congress
33 settled bets Can't tell from luck
Yes @ 94¢ $15K $6.7K
Fearless-Rear-Chitchat
6 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 6¢ $8.0K $10K
Peppery-Capital
21 settled bets Can't tell from luck
Yes @ 94¢ $13K —
Opulent-Right
31 settled bets Can't tell from luck
Yes @ 91¢ $9.7K —
Impure-Contingency
5 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 97¢ $5.4K —
Limp-Drawer
2 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $3.9K
0xb9ef…0b8b
no settled record
Yes @ 95¢ $3.7K —
Calm-Dusk
4 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 91¢ $3.0K —
Circular-Zampone
1 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 95¢ $2.5K —
Thin-Tiara
34 settled bets Can't tell from luck
Yes @ 94¢ $1.9K —
Attached-Pump
20 settled bets Can't tell from luck
sold only $0 $1.8K
Cheerful-Ephemera
50 settled bets Can't tell from luck
Yes @ 91¢ $1.7K —
0xa89c…1410
no settled record
sold only $0 $1.5K
Electric-Architect
2 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $1.5K
0x11f5…5526
no settled record
sold only $0 $1.3K
0x3500…07f0
no settled record
Yes @ 95¢ $1.1K —
0xd53b…825a
no settled record
Yes @ 94¢ $1.1K —
Grubby-Chandelier
9 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 95¢ $1.1K —

Where the whale money went

  1. Yes
    $64K
    86% of whale buying · 13 buyers · $73K sold
  2. No
    $8.0K
    11% of whale buying · 1 buyer · $10K sold
  3. Yes
    $2.5K
    3% of whale buying · 1 buyer

From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Oct 7 to Oct 10, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the weekly run. How profit is counted.

Results and records from the weekly run (1791223421).

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed