Prime-Basis
Skill vs luck
Prime-Basis on Polymarket: 7 settled bets · won 86% (95% range 49%–97%) · profit +$595. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +3.8% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 1, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Prime-Basis: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 1, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xb8fe807aa951e35af53fd0fee36abc303864ce76. Data CC BY 4.0.
Prime-Basis: +$595 on 7 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 86% (95% range 49%–97%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 6 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 3 – Oct 17
- +$44
- Oct 17 – Nov 1
- +$551
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | SELL Yes @ 99.44¢ | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? ↗ | $1.6K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Yes @ 99¢ | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27? ↗ | $10K |
| Oct 22 | BUY Yes
@ 93¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? |
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? | $3.9K |
| Oct 22 | BUY Yes @ 95¢ | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 19 | BUY Yes
@ 95¢
Will Israel election happen as scheduled? |
Will Israel election happen as scheduled? | $1.8K |
| Oct 18 | BUY Yes @ 88¢ | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? ↗ | $7.2K |
| Oct 18 | BUY Yes @ 87¢ | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? ↗ | $6.8K |
| Oct 14 | BUY Yes @ 99¢ | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? ↗ | $2.4K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.