Thin-Tiara
0xc757850237e266d3b08d16b8455777a88590ccfc
Thin-Tiara: +$549 on 40 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 95% (95% range 84%–99%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$549
return +0.5%
Settled bets
40
$116K staked
Won
95.0%
95% range 84%–99%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 38 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$222
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$555
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- +$216
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY Yes
@ 94¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? | $1.9K |
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 99¢
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? |
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | $1.4K |
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? |
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | $6.0K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Yes
@ 99.35¢
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026? |
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | $1.1K |
| Oct 7 | BUY No
@ 99.89¢
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? |
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | $5.6K |
| Oct 7 | BUY No
@ 99.8¢
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026? |
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026? | $6.8K |
| Oct 7 | BUY No
@ 99.75¢
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? |
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | $2.2K |
| Oct 3 | BUY No
@ 96¢
Czechia leading at halftime? |
Czechia leading at halftime? | $1.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.