Knowing-Kit
Skill vs luck
Knowing-Kit on Polymarket: 7 settled bets · won 86% (95% range 49%–97%) · profit +$29K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 24, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Knowing-Kit: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x819dfea4ffa9c4d3ef27f00e2dbac7e9e93507f1. Data CC BY 4.0.
Knowing-Kit: +$29K on 7 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 86% (95% range 49%–97%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 7 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 21 – Oct 7
- +$20K
- Oct 7 – Oct 24
- +$9.1K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | BUY Milwaukee Brewers @ 58¢ | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Canadiens
@ 61¢
Canadiens vs. Blackhawks |
Canadiens vs. Blackhawks | $12K |
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 94¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? |
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? | $1.1K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Yes
@ 90¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? |
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | $1.3K |
| Oct 7 | BUY LOUD
@ 54¢
Valorant: Paper Rex vs LOUD - Map 2 Winner |
Valorant: Paper Rex vs LOUD - Map 2 Winner | $1.7K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Florida @ 52¢ | Spread: Florida (-5.5) ↗ | $2.1K |
| Sep 30 | BUY New York Yankees @ 54¢ | Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees ↗ | $24K |
All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?