Able-Kielbasa
Skill vs luck
Able-Kielbasa on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 80% (95% range 38%–96%) · profit +$1.0K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Able-Kielbasa: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x77266604e63f5caf08d19caebae0c563ce064aee. Data CC BY 4.0.
Able-Kielbasa: +$1.0K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 80% (95% range 38%–96%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$190
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- +$836
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY No @ 90¢ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $6.0K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Yes @ 42¢ | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Yes @ 63¢ | Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? ↗ | $1.9K |
| Oct 24 | BUY No @ 72¢ | Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? ↗ | $2.4K |
| Oct 20 | SELL No @ 64¢ | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? ↗ | $6.4K |
| Oct 3 | BUY No
@ 76¢
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? |
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | $3.0K |
| Oct 3 | BUY No
@ 76¢
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? |
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | $1.5K |
| Sep 27 | SELL No @ 60¢ | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? ↗ | $2.8K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?