Polymarket market · Other
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?
Resolved: No won · See it on Polymarket ↗
15 whales traded $63K on this market since Oct 29, 90% of their buying on Yes. Copying their buys off the order book we recorded about 4 minutes later would have cost 4.4¢ more per share, with 87% of the size there to buy. No won, with 10% of the whale buying on it. Of the 15 whales whose whole position we captured, 3 made +$30K and 12 lost −$47K: −$18K between them. Biggest win: Vast-Pitch, +$17K on No. Biggest loss: Grounded-Depression, −$11K on Yes.
The whales on this market
15 whales| Whale · record | Backed | Bought | Sold | Made on it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal-Bake
67 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 86¢ | $13K | $4.8K | −$7.8K |
| Grounded-Depression
83 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 93¢ | $11K | — | −$11K |
| Talkative-Semicolon
5 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 91¢ | $8.2K | — | −$8.2K |
| Cheerful-Ephemera
92 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 93¢ | $6.1K | — | −$6.1K |
| 0x3fd0…0022
7 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 94¢ | $4.8K | — | −$4.8K |
| Bountiful-Mare
3 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 44¢ | $2.1K | — | +$2.6K |
| Peppery-Capital
53 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
No @ 15¢ | $1.9K | — | +$11K |
| Traumatic-Pressroom
7 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 88¢ | $1.6K | — | −$1.6K |
| Phony-Adulthood
1 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 93¢ | $1.6K | — | −$1.6K |
| Vast-Pitch
2 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 9¢ | $1.6K | — | +$17K |
| Wordy-Duel
27 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 86¢ | $1.5K | — | −$1.5K |
| Lean-Pantyhose
12 settled bets Worse than the odds |
Yes @ 86¢ | $1.4K | — | −$1.4K |
| Fearless-Misnomer
84 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 89¢ | $1.4K | — | −$1.4K |
| Haunting-Rubric
3 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 90¢ | $1.3K | — | −$1.3K |
| Smooth-Evolution
33 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 85¢ | $1.0K | — | −$1.0K |
Where the whale money went
-
Yes lost$52K90% of whale buying · 12 buyers · $4.8K sold
-
No won$5.5K10% of whale buying · 3 buyers
From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Oct 29 to Nov 2, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the daily run. “Made on it” counts only trades we captured; a dash means part of the position escaped capture. How profit is counted.
Results and records from the run (1793689244).
More other markets the whales bet on
All Other →| Market | Whale money | Whales | Result | Last whale bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? | $217K | 31 | Won: No | |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC Alverca: O/U 0.5 | $62K | 4 | Won: Over | |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? | $107K | 27 | Open | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | $2.80M | 142 | Open | |
| Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-11-02? | $92K | 14 | Won: No | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | $113K | 25 | Won: No | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | $564K | 68 | Open | |
| Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | $67K | 15 | Open |