Haunting-Rubric
Skill vs luck
Haunting-Rubric on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 67% (95% range 21%–94%) · profit +$4.7K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +0.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 3, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Haunting-Rubric: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 3, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xdb405a9ad581a23c68a32b5d5869d4ad5ae73612. Data CC BY 4.0.
Haunting-Rubric: +$4.7K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 67% (95% range 21%–94%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$60
- Oct 19 – Nov 3
- +$4.6K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29 | BUY Yes @ 90¢ | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 19 | BUY Yes @ 88¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $43K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.