0x3fd0…0022
Skill vs luck
0x3fd0…0022 on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 75% (95% range 30%–95%) · profit −$6.9K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 22, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “0x3fd0…0022: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 22, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x3fd0190eb137e335db080b9855f90c86849f0022. Data CC BY 4.0.
0x3fd0…0022: −$6.9K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 75% (95% range 30%–95%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$8.0K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$894
- Sep 20 – Oct 6
- +$127
- Oct 6 – Oct 22
- +$112
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | BUY Yes @ 96¢ | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? ↗ | $2.4K |
| Oct 17 | BUY No @ 20¢ | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? ↗ | $1.8K |
| Oct 16 | BUY No @ 20¢ | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? ↗ | $2.4K |
| Oct 16 | BUY Yes
@ 96¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18? |
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18? | $2.7K |
| Oct 2 | BUY Yes @ 98¢ | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? ↗ | $5.1K |
| Sep 16 | BUY Yes @ 90¢ | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? ↗ | $8.0K |
| Aug 23 | BUY Yes @ 94¢ | US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? ↗ | $8.0K |
All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?