Polymarket market · Other

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?

Resolved: No won · See it on Polymarket ↗

15 whales put $207K into this market since Aug 20, 99% of their buying on No. No won. Of the 7 whales whose whole position we captured, 6 made +$895 and 1 lost −$74: +$821 between them.

The whales on this market

15 whales
Whale · recordBackedBoughtSold Made on it
0x2e0b…8070
4 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 99¢ $59K — +$674
Impassioned-Watch
13 settled bets Can't tell from luck
No @ 99.6¢ $26K $16K −$74
Damp-Accountant
21 settled bets Can't tell from luck
No @ 99.78¢ $35K — +$78
Cheerful-Ephemera
56 settled bets Can't tell from luck
No @ 99.33¢ $14K $21K —
Closed-Barracks
2 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 99.1¢ $9.8K — +$89
Careful-Bunch
80 settled bets Can't tell from luck
No @ 98¢ $3.7K $2.0K +$38
Steep-Visa
7 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $4.0K —
Unsteady-Enjoyment
1 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $3.5K —
Modest-Habit
1 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $3.3K —
Kind-Nanoparticle
1 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 99.5¢ $2.1K — +$10
Unripe-Split
10 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $2.0K —
Scented-Eyelids
16 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $2.0K —
Shiny-Camera
6 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 99.6¢ $1.5K — +$6
Simplistic-Jellyfish
19 settled bets Can't tell from luck
sold only $0 $1.4K —
0x43e5…23ce
1 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $1.0K —

Where the whale money went

  1. No won
    $150K
    99% of whale buying · 8 buyers · $54K sold
  2. No lost
    $1.2K
    1% of whale buying · 1 buyer · $2.0K sold

From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Aug 20 to Sep 29, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the daily run. “Made on it” is what each whale took out plus what its shares paid at the end ($1 for the winner, nothing for the rest), counting only trades we captured. A dash means it sold more than we saw it buy, so part of its position is missing and it's left out of the totals. How profit is counted.

Results and records from the run (1791710133).

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed