Impassioned-Watch
0x0c0e270cf879583d6a0142fc817e05b768d0434e
Impassioned-Watch: +$528 on 13 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 85% (95% range 58%–96%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$528
return +0.5%
Settled bets
13
$106K staked
Won
84.6%
95% range 58%–96%
Mostly bets on
crypto
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 11 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$11
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$310
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- +$207
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 88¢
Republican Senate odds hit 50% by October 31? |
Republican Senate odds hit 50% by October 31? | $2.5K |
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 91¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? |
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | $24K |
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 99¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? |
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | $6.1K |
| Oct 7 | SELL No
@ 87¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | $19K |
| Oct 4 | BUY No
@ 99.3¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? |
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | $2.1K |
| Oct 1 | SELL No
@ 55¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? |
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | $1.3K |
| Oct 1 | BUY No
@ 99¢
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | $1.8K |
| Oct 1 | BUY No
@ 99¢
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | $6.7K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.