Polymarket market · Sports

US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth

Resolved: James Duckworth won · See it on Polymarket ↗

11 whales put $69K into this market since Aug 29, 66% of their buying on Matteo Arnaldi. James Duckworth won. Of the 8 whales whose whole position we captured, 6 made +$8.6K and 2 lost −$29K: −$21K between them.

The whales on this market

11 whales
Whale · recordBackedBoughtSold Made on it
Substantial-Service
670 settled bets Beat the odds*
Matteo Arnaldi @ 59¢ $28K — −$28K
Leafy-Narrative-Departure
10 settled bets Too few bets
Matteo Arnaldi @ 49¢ $3.4K $5.2K +$1.8K
Violet-Deviation
22 settled bets Can't tell from luck
James Duckworth @ 66¢ $3.4K $5.2K +$1.8K
Powerless-Savannah
2,259 settled bets Beat the odds*
James Duckworth @ 61¢ $6.8K — +$40
Long-Ability
34 settled bets Too few bets
James Duckworth @ 75¢ $1.5K $4.0K —
Hollow-Maggot-Sense
951 settled bets Beat the odds*
James Duckworth @ 52¢ $3.7K — +$3.5K
Beautiful-Frosting
19 settled bets Can't tell from luck
James Duckworth @ 68¢ $2.1K — +$1.0K
Remarkable-Cclamp-Dishwasher
21 settled bets Can't tell from luck
sold only $0 $2.0K —
Brisk-Clockwork-Behalf
3,172 settled bets Can't tell from luck
James Duckworth @ 69¢ $1.4K — +$621
Each-Summary
42 settled bets Can't tell from luck
Matteo Arnaldi @ 62¢ $1.2K — −$1.2K
Spectacular-Rag
2 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $1.2K —

Where the whale money went

  1. Matteo Arnaldi lost
    $34K
    66% of whale buying · 3 buyers · $6.4K sold
  2. James Duckworth won
    $16K
    32% of whale buying · 6 buyers · $9.2K sold
  3. James Duckworth lost
    $1.2K
    2% of whale buying · 1 buyer · $2.0K sold

From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Aug 29 to Aug 31, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the weekly run. “Made on it” is what each whale took out plus what its shares paid at the end ($1 for the winner, nothing for the rest), counting only trades we captured. A dash means it sold more than we saw it buy, so part of its position is missing and it's left out of the totals. How profit is counted.

Results and records from the weekly run (1791223421).

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed