Polymarket market · Other
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?
Resolved: Yes won · See it on Polymarket ↗
15 whales put $194K into this market since Sep 9, 98% of their buying on Yes. Yes won. Of the 12 whales whose whole position we captured, 10 made +$1.5K and 2 lost −$3.1K: −$1.6K between them.
The whales on this market
15 whales| Whale · record | Backed | Bought | Sold | Made on it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short-Convention
47 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 99.9¢ | $124K | — | +$124 |
| Sugary-Concentration
21 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 99.55¢ | $23K | — | +$104 |
| Complete-Fly
6 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 99¢ | $7.9K | — | +$109 |
| Determined-Valuable
17 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 95¢ | $7.5K | — | +$396 |
| Simple-Tradition
25 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 99.64¢ | $7.4K | — | +$27 |
| Key-Sovereignty
36 settled bets Worse than the odds |
Yes @ 99.19¢ | $5.7K | — | +$46 |
| Grounded-Depression
30 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 97¢ | $5.3K | — | +$146 |
| 0x5039…946d
1 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $2.1K | — |
| Striking-Saucer
4 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 99¢ | $2.0K | — | +$20 |
| Agitated-Jalapeño
12 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 87¢ | $1.9K | — | +$280 |
| Spanish-Sustainment
5 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 72¢ | $1.8K | — | −$1.8K |
| Unripe-Whisker
63 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
sold only | $0 | $1.5K | — |
| Damp-Accountant
21 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 86¢ | $1.4K | — | +$236 |
| Vicious-Hardhat
2 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 65¢ | $1.3K | — | −$1.3K |
| Sarcastic-Commandment
2 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $1.1K | — |
Where the whale money went
-
Yes won$186K98% of whale buying · 10 buyers · $4.7K sold
-
Yes lost$1.8K1% of whale buying · 1 buyer
-
No lost$1.3K1% of whale buying · 1 buyer
From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Sep 9 to Sep 15, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the weekly run. “Made on it” is what each whale took out plus what its shares paid at the end ($1 for the winner, nothing for the rest), counting only trades we captured. A dash means it sold more than we saw it buy, so part of its position is missing and it's left out of the totals. How profit is counted.
Results and records from the weekly run (1791223421).