Agitated-Jalapeño
0x67d657e52db60591b27b411f0ed1dbde811c245e
Agitated-Jalapeño: −$10K on 12 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 25% (95% range 9%–53%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
−$10K
return −52.5%
Settled bets
12
$20K staked
Won
25.0%
95% range 9%–53%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 6 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$7.5K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$2.9K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$23
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | BUY Yes
@ 7¢
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? |
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | $1.1K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Yes
@ 81¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? |
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | $2.0K |
| Sep 30 | BUY No
@ 99.68¢
Will Changpeng Zhao (CZ) post about $LAPTOP by September 30? |
Will Changpeng Zhao (CZ) post about $LAPTOP by September 30? | $1.3K |
| Sep 26 | SELL No
@ 98¢
Will Changpeng Zhao (CZ) post about $LAPTOP by September 30? |
Will Changpeng Zhao (CZ) post about $LAPTOP by September 30? | $1.3K |
| Sep 21 | BUY No
@ 86¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? |
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | $2.2K |
| Sep 21 | SELL No
@ 86¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? |
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | $3.2K |
| Sep 14 | SELL No
@ 99.9¢
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? |
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | $2.0K |
| Sep 12 | BUY Yes
@ 87¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? |
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | $1.9K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.