Sugary-Concentration

0x1295269296e51cd28a3db85fa6728c0e352b5cfd

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Sugary-Concentration: +$1.9K on 21 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 85%–100%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$1.9K
return +1.0%
Settled bets
21
$197K staked
Won
100.0%
95% range 85%–100%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 21 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
+$1.8K
Sep 4 – Sep 20
+$104
Sep 20 – Oct 5
+$19
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 5 BUY Yes @ 99.9¢
Will Carlos Portinho win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?
Will Carlos Portinho win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election? $1.6K
Oct 5 BUY Yes @ 99.88¢
Will Deltan Dallagnol win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?
Will Deltan Dallagnol win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election? $1.3K
Oct 5 BUY Yes @ 99.84¢
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? $1.6K
Oct 4 BUY Yes @ 99.8¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? $1.2K
Oct 1 BUY Yes @ 99.9¢
Will China PR vs. Turkmenistan end in a draw?
Will China PR vs. Turkmenistan end in a draw? $3.7K
Oct 1 BUY Yes @ 99.77¢
Exact Score: China PR 0 - 0 Turkmenistan?
Exact Score: China PR 0 - 0 Turkmenistan? $4.8K
Sep 21 BUY Yes @ 99.89¢
Will AfD win the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election by a margin of 2-5%?
Will AfD win the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election by a margin of 2-5%? $1.0K
Sep 20 BUY Yes @ 89¢
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? $1.9K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed