Short-Convention
0x6a88c5ecd262e2c42e78bad8e6db7ab3c4e4b859
Short-Convention: −$12K on 47 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 96% (95% range 86%–99%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$12K
return −2.5%
Settled bets
47
$488K staked
Won
95.7%
95% range 86%–99%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 47 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$2.9K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$200
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$9.7K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY Yes
@ 99.87¢
Exact Score: SK Brann 0 - 2 Viking FK? |
Exact Score: SK Brann 0 - 2 Viking FK? | $3.0K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Over
@ 99.87¢
Turkiye vs. Slovenia: O/U 5.5 |
Turkiye vs. Slovenia: O/U 5.5 | $2.6K |
| Oct 8 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Exact Score: Cruzeiro EC 2 - 2 São Paulo FC? |
Exact Score: Cruzeiro EC 2 - 2 São Paulo FC? | $2.0K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Under
@ 99.84¢
Algeria vs. Niger: O/U 12.5 Total Corners |
Algeria vs. Niger: O/U 12.5 Total Corners | $1.8K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Under
@ 99.9¢
Angola vs. Malawi: O/U 6.5 |
Angola vs. Malawi: O/U 6.5 | $18K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Yes
@ 99.87¢
Exact Score: Mulbarton Wanderers FC 1 - 2 Gloucester City AFC? |
Exact Score: Mulbarton Wanderers FC 1 - 2 Gloucester City AFC? | $1.4K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will Brentwood Town FC win on 2026-10-03? |
Will Brentwood Town FC win on 2026-10-03? | $2.0K |
| Oct 2 | BUY Under
@ 99.9¢
Anguilla vs. Antigua and Barbuda: 1st Half O/U 1.5 |
Anguilla vs. Antigua and Barbuda: 1st Half O/U 1.5 | $47K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.