Polymarket market · Crypto

Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?

Open as of the last weekly run · See it on Polymarket ↗

14 whales put $76K into this market since Aug 20, 94% of their buying on No. It hadn't resolved as of the last weekly run.

The whales on this market

14 whales
Whale · recordBackedBoughtSold
Hideous-Leg
5 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $36K
Serene-Decision
8 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 93¢ $10K —
Apprehensive-Breakdown
101 settled bets Can't tell from luck
No @ 93¢ $5.6K —
0x8f14…1e77
no settled record
sold only $0 $3.7K
0x716d…4206
no settled record
sold only $0 $3.4K
0xfa03…8916
no settled record
sold only $0 $3.2K
0xf2c2…4de7
no settled record
sold only $0 $2.9K
Accurate-Faith
1 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $2.7K
Offbeat-Traffic
6 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 95¢ $2.4K —
0xbc0a…35cd
no settled record
Yes @ 3¢ $1.4K —
0x0f58…0ff0
no settled record
sold only $0 $1.2K
0xadaf…3da0
no settled record
No @ 96¢ $1.2K —
Pastel-Method
7 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 94¢ $1.1K —
0xf94c…59dc
no settled record
No @ 95¢ $1.0K —

Where the whale money went

  1. No
    $21K
    94% of whale buying · 6 buyers · $46K sold
  2. Yes
    $1.4K
    6% of whale buying · 1 buyer · $7.8K sold

From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Aug 20 to Oct 8, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the weekly run. How profit is counted.

Results and records from the weekly run (1791223421).

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed