Polymarket market · Crypto

Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?

Open as of the last daily run · See it on Polymarket ↗

10 whales traded $50K on this market since Oct 3, 75% of their buying on No. Copying their buys off the order book we recorded about 3 minutes later would have cost 1.3¢ more per share, with 100% of the size there to buy. It hadn't resolved as of the last daily run.

The whales on this market

10 whales
Whale · recordBackedBoughtSold
Splendid-Waistband
1 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 67¢ $27K —
Taut-Ease-Bloodflow
24 settled bets Can't tell from luck
No @ 62¢ $7.4K —
0xf705…3ca7
165 settled bets Can't tell from luck
Yes @ 36¢ $6.6K —
Frequent-Cornmeal
9 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 53¢ $1.7K —
0xa3fa…af3a
no settled record
sold only $0 $1.5K
Barren-Bull-Polliwog
1 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 45¢ $1.4K —
Favorable-Pepper-Brushing
1,129 settled bets Worse than the odds
sold only $0 $1.3K
0x8735…46e5
no settled record
Yes @ 63¢ $1.2K —
0x37a1…6691
no settled record
Yes @ 51¢ $1.2K —
Impressive-Steak
450 settled bets Can't tell from luck
Yes @ 58¢ $1.2K —

Where the whale money went

  1. No
    $36K
    75% of whale buying · 3 buyers · $2.7K sold
  2. Yes
    $11K
    23% of whale buying · 4 buyers
  3. Yes
    $1.2K
    3% of whale buying · 1 buyer

From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Oct 3 to Oct 18, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the daily run. How profit is counted.

Results and records from the run (1792393220).

About this data · run 1792393220, computed 2026-10-19 07:00 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1792393220 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed