Splendid-Waistband
Skill vs luck
Splendid-Waistband on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 0% (95% range 0%–79%) · profit −$1.0K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 19, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Splendid-Waistband: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 19, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x95d470e8d82d3dd6a899e91e36d7cee4b2c7c38c. Data CC BY 4.0.
Splendid-Waistband: −$1.0K on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 4 – Oct 19
- −$1.0K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | BUY No
@ 50¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 in October? |
Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 in October? | $1.3K |
| Oct 15 | BUY No @ 68¢ | Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October? ↗ | $14K |
| Oct 15 | BUY No @ 67¢ | Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October? ↗ | $13K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Down
@ 65¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET | $1.0K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?