Polymarket market · Sports
Patriots vs. Bears: O/U 50.5
Resolved: Over won · See it on Polymarket ↗
13 whales traded $74K on this market since Oct 20, 75% of their buying on Over. Copying their buys off the order book we recorded about 3 minutes later would have cost 2.2¢ more per share, with 89% of the size there to buy. Over won, with 75% of the whale buying on it. Of the 12 whales whose whole position we captured, 5 made +$50K and 7 lost −$15K: +$35K between them. Biggest win: Half-Mime, +$23K on Over. Biggest loss: Corrupt-Poisoning, −$3.6K on Under.
The whales on this market
13 whales| Whale · record | Backed | Bought | Sold | Made on it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Half-Mime
5 settled bets Too few bets |
Over @ 52¢ | $25K | — | +$23K |
| Normal-Check
192 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Over @ 44¢ | $12K | — | +$10K |
| Harmless-Baseball
79 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Over @ 48¢ | $9.6K | — | +$10K |
| Hollow-Maggot-Sense
1,347 settled bets Beat the odds* |
Over @ 53¢ | $5.5K | — | +$4.9K |
| Remarkable-Underpass
17 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Over @ 45¢ | $1.8K | $2.0K | — |
| Corrupt-Poisoning
416 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Under @ 32¢ | $3.6K | — | −$3.6K |
| Silky-Geometry
257 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Under @ 49¢ | $3.5K | — | −$3.5K |
| Indelible-Try
65 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Under @ 50¢ | $2.6K | — | −$2.6K |
| Obvious-Geyser-Cutlet
167 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Over @ 52¢ | $2.0K | — | +$1.8K |
| Shabby-Postage
34 settled bets Beat the odds* |
Under @ 55¢ | $1.8K | — | −$1.8K |
| Willing-Malnutrition
19 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Under @ 50¢ | $1.8K | — | −$1.8K |
| General-Secret-Rim
9 settled bets Too few bets |
Under @ 49¢ | $1.0K | — | −$1.0K |
| Smug-Variability
70 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Under @ 50¢ | $1.0K | — | −$1.0K |
Where the whale money went
-
Over won$54K75% of whale buying · 6 buyers · $2.0K sold
-
Under lost$18K25% of whale buying · 8 buyers
From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Oct 20 to Oct 23, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the daily run. “Made on it” is what each whale took out plus what its shares paid at the end ($1 for the winner, nothing for the rest), counting only trades we captured. A dash means it sold more than we saw it buy, so part of its position is missing and it's left out of the totals. How profit is counted.
Results and records from the run (1792825211).
More sports markets the whales bet on
All Sports →| Market | Whale money | Whales | Result | Last whale bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots vs. Bears | $886K | 34 | Won: Bears | |
| Spread: Bears (-2.5) | $84K | 13 | Won: Bears | |
| Spread: Bears (-3.5) | $76K | 10 | Won: Bears | |
| Hurricanes vs. Oilers | $90K | 8 | Won: Oilers | |
| Cavaliers vs. 76ers | $1.25M | 91 | Won: 76ers | |
| Cavaliers vs. 76ers: O/U 237.5 | $67K | 8 | Won: Under | |
| Spread: Thunder (-8.5) | $231K | 21 | Won: Thunder | |
| Spread: 76ers (-5.5) | $94K | 3 | Won: 76ers |
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?