Harmless-Baseball
0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a
Harmless-Baseball: −$108K on 67 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 34% (95% range 24%–46%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$108K
return −22.8%
Settled bets
67
$476K staked
Won
34.3%
95% range 24%–46%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 63 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$70K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$4.4K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$34K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY TLN Pirates
@ 51¢
LoL: Movistar KOI Fénix vs TLN Pirates - Game 4 Winner |
LoL: Movistar KOI Fénix vs TLN Pirates - Game 4 Winner | $1.3K |
| Oct 9 | BUY TLN Pirates
@ 52¢
LoL: Movistar KOI Fénix vs TLN Pirates - Game 4 Winner |
LoL: Movistar KOI Fénix vs TLN Pirates - Game 4 Winner | $1.4K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Under
@ 22¢
CA Paranaense vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5 |
CA Paranaense vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5 | $1.1K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Under
@ 49¢
CA Paranaense vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5 |
CA Paranaense vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5 | $2.9K |
| Oct 7 | BUY FlyQuest
@ 73¢
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner |
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner | $8.4K |
| Oct 7 | BUY FlyQuest
@ 73¢
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner |
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner | $22K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Shopify Rebellion
@ 57¢
LoL: GAM Esports vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage |
LoL: GAM Esports vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage | $4.0K |
| Sep 30 | SELL Yes
@ 92¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | $4.6K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.