Shabby-Postage

0x91e67d77b45558ce69238bf8a79e2e902b1ee9c5

Skill vs luck

Shabby-Postage on Polymarket: 22 settled bets · won 73% (95% range 52%–87%) · profit +$70K. Skill vs luck: better than luck, though 1 in 40 wallets do this by chance alone. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 22, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Shabby-Postage: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 22, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x91e67d77b45558ce69238bf8a79e2e902b1ee9c5. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Beat the odds* Check it on Polymarket ↗

Shabby-Postage: +$70K on 22 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 73% (95% range 52%–87%). Skill or luck: beat the odds (1 in 40 wallets do this by luck alone).

Profit
+$70K
return +37.8%
Settled bets
22
$186K staked
Won
72.7%
95% range 52%–87%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Beat the odds (1 in 40 wallets do this by luck alone). We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 18 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Oct 6 – Oct 22
+$70K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −10.9% (1,982 positions).

In the live feed

BUY $20K
Under @ 51¢ → now 52¢ (+$19)
Cavaliers vs. 76ers: O/U 237.5

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 22 BUY Mary Stoiana @ 68¢
Japan Women's Open: Mary Stoiana vs Moyuka Uchijima
 Japan Women's Open: Mary Stoiana vs Moyuka Uchijima ↗ $49K
Oct 22 BUY @ 50¢
Kings vs. Clippers AND Kings vs. Clippers: O/U 228.5
 Kings vs. Clippers AND Kings vs. Clippers: O/U 228.5 $5.9K
Oct 22 BUY @ 59¢
Kings vs. Clippers AND Kings vs. Clippers: O/U 235.5
 Kings vs. Clippers AND Kings vs. Clippers: O/U 235.5 $4.9K
Oct 22 SELL Under @ 99.9¢
Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 244.5
 Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 244.5 $43K
Oct 21 BUY Under @ 53¢
Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5
 Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5 $25K
Oct 21 BUY Over @ 58¢
Hornets vs. Nets: O/U 216.5
 Hornets vs. Nets: O/U 216.5 $30K
Oct 21 BUY Under @ 54¢
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 230.5
 Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 230.5 $9.7K
Oct 20 BUY Over @ 51¢
Celtics vs. Pistons: O/U 220.5
 Celtics vs. Pistons: O/U 220.5 $6.1K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?

About this data · run 1792652408, computed 2026-10-22 07:00 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1792652408 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed