Smug-Variability
0xdd5ef115f801999575b03d78d0115ad8b2d59040
Smug-Variability: +$6.6K on 47 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 66% (95% range 52%–78%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$6.6K
return +3.1%
Settled bets
47
$215K staked
Won
66.0%
95% range 52%–78%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 47 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$9.8K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$8.8K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$5.6K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY Over
@ 50¢
Florida State vs. Louisville: O/U 59.5 |
Florida State vs. Louisville: O/U 59.5 | $1.0K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Under
@ 50¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 |
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 | $1.0K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Grizzlies
@ 50¢
Spread: Magic (-2.5) |
Spread: Magic (-2.5) | $1.0K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Anthony Wint
@ 81¢
UFC 332: Anthony Wint vs. Lucas Armand (Heavyweight, Early Prelims) |
UFC 332: Anthony Wint vs. Lucas Armand (Heavyweight, Early Prelims) | $1.6K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Anthony Wint
@ 81¢
UFC 332: Anthony Wint vs. Lucas Armand (Heavyweight, Early Prelims) |
UFC 332: Anthony Wint vs. Lucas Armand (Heavyweight, Early Prelims) | $1.6K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Anthony Wint
@ 81¢
UFC 332: Anthony Wint vs. Lucas Armand (Heavyweight, Early Prelims) |
UFC 332: Anthony Wint vs. Lucas Armand (Heavyweight, Early Prelims) | $1.6K |
| Sep 28 | BUY Eagles
@ 51¢
1H Spread: Eagles (-2.5) |
1H Spread: Eagles (-2.5) | $1.0K |
| Sep 25 | BUY No
@ 92¢
Will Australia win on 2026-09-25? |
Will Australia win on 2026-09-25? | $1.8K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.