Silky-Geometry

0x032eb1bc893940263ad0b01889f262fc232f2a9e

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Silky-Geometry: +$2.3K on 191 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 59% (95% range 52%–65%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$2.3K
return +0.3%
Settled bets
191
$913K staked
Won
58.6%
95% range 52%–65%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 190 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
−$11K
Sep 4 – Sep 20
+$8.1K
Sep 20 – Oct 5
+$4.9K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 10 BUY No @ 93¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? $3.0K
Oct 10 BUY Yes @ 17¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? $1.0K
Oct 9 BUY Over @ 68¢
Florida State vs. Louisville: O/U 53.5
Florida State vs. Louisville: O/U 53.5 $4.8K
Oct 9 BUY Over @ 68¢
Florida State vs. Louisville: O/U 53.5
Florida State vs. Louisville: O/U 53.5 $1.2K
Oct 9 BUY No @ 79¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? $1.2K
Oct 9 BUY No @ 78¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? $1.5K
Oct 9 BUY No @ 78¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? $1.3K
Oct 9 BUY No @ 76¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? $1.6K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed