Polymarket market · Other
Duke vs. Virginia
Resolved: Duke won · See it on Polymarket ↗
11 whales traded $139K on this market since Oct 23, 60% of their buying on Duke. Copying their buys off the order book we recorded about 5 minutes later would have cost 0.9¢ more per share, with 100% of the size there to buy. Duke won, with 60% of the whale buying on it. Of the 9 whales whose whole position we captured, 4 made +$80K and 5 lost −$40K: +$40K between them. Biggest win: Grown-Difference-Burnout, +$59K on Duke. Biggest loss: Tiny-Flax, −$35K on Virginia.
The whales on this market
11 whales| Whale · record | Backed | Bought | Sold | Made on it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiny-Flax
6 settled bets Too few bets |
Virginia @ 72¢ | $35K | — | −$35K |
| Grown-Difference-Burnout
297 settled bets Beat the odds* |
Duke @ 28¢ | $32K | — | +$59K |
| Smart-Elbow
70 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Duke @ 72¢ | $30K | — | +$12K |
| Corrupt-Poisoning
416 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Duke @ 67¢ | $17K | — | +$8.3K |
| First-Bellows
2 settled bets Too few bets |
Duke @ 44¢ | $3.0K | $6.8K | — |
| Normal-High-Soy
14 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
sold only | $0 | $5.1K | — |
| Brisk-Clockwork-Behalf
4,599 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Duke @ 69¢ | $3.6K | — | −$933 |
| Exhausted-Frosting
44 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Virginia @ 56¢ | $1.8K | — | −$1.8K |
| Dependable-Waterfront
462 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Duke @ 61¢ | $1.6K | — | +$1.0K |
| Shiny-Advertisement
18 settled bets Too few bets |
Virginia @ 50¢ | $1.3K | — | −$1.3K |
| Scary-Fannypack
203 settled bets Beat the odds* |
Virginia @ 55¢ | $1.2K | — | −$1.2K |
Where the whale money went
-
Duke won$76K60% of whale buying · 5 buyers · $12K sold
-
Virginia lost$47K37% of whale buying · 6 buyers
-
Duke lost$3.0K2% of whale buying · 1 buyer
From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Oct 23 to Oct 24, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the daily run. “Made on it” is what each whale took out plus what its shares paid at the end ($1 for the winner, nothing for the rest), counting only trades we captured. A dash means it sold more than we saw it buy, so part of its position is missing and it's left out of the totals. How profit is counted.
Results and records from the run (1792825211).
More other markets the whales bet on
All Other →| Market | Whale money | Whales | Result | Last whale bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | $2.62M | 131 | Open | |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? | $196K | 18 | Open | |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | $331K | 78 | Open | |
| Army vs. Tulsa | $288K | 11 | Won: Army | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | $404K | 62 | Open | |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement? | $152K | 23 | Won: Yes | |
| Cruzeiro EC vs. Clube do Remo: O/U 2.5 | $52K | 3 | Won: Under | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | $829K | 97 | Open |
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?