Dependable-Waterfront

0xbca08c1bc204a34f2fddbe47b438b9bd42ac9705

Polymarket

Beat the odds* Check it on Polymarket ↗

Dependable-Waterfront: +$59K on 384 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 63% (95% range 58%–68%). Skill or luck: beat the odds (1 in 40 wallets do this by luck alone).

Profit
+$59K
return +4.7%
Settled bets
384
$1.25M staked
Won
63.3%
95% range 58%–68%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Beat the odds (1 in 40 wallets do this by luck alone). We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 384 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
+$14K
Sep 4 – Sep 20
−$22K
Sep 20 – Oct 5
+$68K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 7 BUY Milwaukee Brewers @ 42¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres $1.3K
Oct 5 BUY Atlanta Braves @ 34¢
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers $2.1K
Oct 5 BUY Panthers @ 54¢
Spread: Lions (-2.5)
Spread: Lions (-2.5) $1.7K
Oct 5 BUY Panthers @ 50¢
Spread: Lions (-1.5)
Spread: Lions (-1.5) $2.7K
Oct 4 BUY Over @ 58¢
Broncos vs. 49ers: O/U 31.5
Broncos vs. 49ers: O/U 31.5 $1.8K
Oct 4 BUY Over @ 69¢
Broncos vs. 49ers: O/U 28.5
Broncos vs. 49ers: O/U 28.5 $1.5K
Oct 4 BUY Over @ 79¢
Chargers vs. Seahawks: O/U 42.5
Chargers vs. Seahawks: O/U 42.5 $9.9K
Oct 4 BUY Over @ 82¢
Chargers vs. Seahawks: O/U 40.5
Chargers vs. Seahawks: O/U 40.5 $2.2K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed