Polymarket market · Sports
Erste Bank Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Ignacio Buse
Resolved: Adrian Mannarino won · See it on Polymarket ↗
12 whales traded $92K on this market since Oct 27, 79% of their buying on Adrian Mannarino. Copying their buys off the order book we recorded about 4 minutes later would have cost 0.2¢ less per share, with 100% of the size there to buy. Adrian Mannarino won, with 79% of the whale buying on it. Of the 10 whales whose whole position we captured, 8 made +$12K and 2 lost −$7.8K: +$3.7K between them. Biggest win: 0x7750…a3f3, +$5.0K on Adrian Mannarino. Biggest loss: Gleeful-Cauliflower, −$4.8K on Ignacio Buse.
The whales on this market
12 whales| Whale · record | Backed | Bought | Sold | Made on it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Determined-Toenail-Widget
2 settled bets Too few bets |
Adrian Mannarino @ 70¢ | $22K | $18K | — |
| Wrathful-Row
284 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Adrian Mannarino @ 71¢ | $1.6K | $21K | — |
| Gleeful-Cauliflower
5,204 settled bets Beat the odds* |
Ignacio Buse @ 70¢ | $10K | — | −$4.8K |
| Knowledgeable-Steel
96 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Adrian Mannarino @ 63¢ | $6.2K | — | +$3.6K |
| Vengeful-Interject-Parking
26 settled bets Worse than the odds |
Ignacio Buse @ 40¢ | $3.0K | — | −$3.0K |
| Slow-Escape
380 settled bets Beat the odds* |
Adrian Mannarino @ 55¢ | $1.8K | — | +$1.5K |
| 0x7750…a3f3
17 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Adrian Mannarino @ 23¢ | $1.5K | — | +$5.0K |
| Dimpled-Fishbone
49 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Adrian Mannarino @ 96¢ | $1.4K | — | +$60 |
| Favorable-Neuron
142 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Adrian Mannarino @ 70¢ | $1.2K | — | +$498 |
| Powerless-Savannah
2,996 settled bets Beat the odds* |
Adrian Mannarino @ 95¢ | $1.1K | — | +$56 |
| Afraid-Doubter
1 settled bets Too few bets |
Adrian Mannarino @ 61¢ | $1.0K | — | +$640 |
| Admired-Chaos
13 settled bets Too few bets |
Adrian Mannarino @ 84¢ | $1.0K | — | +$184 |
Where the whale money went
-
Adrian Mannarino won$42K79% of whale buying · 10 buyers · $34K sold
-
Ignacio Buse lost$9.2K18% of whale buying · 2 buyers · $5.4K sold
-
Adrian Mannarino lost$1.6K3% of whale buying · 1 buyer
From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Oct 27, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the daily run. “Made on it” is what each whale took out plus what its shares paid at the end ($1 for the winner, nothing for the rest), counting only trades we captured. A dash means it sold more than we saw it buy, so part of its position is missing and it's left out of the totals. How profit is counted.
Results and records from the run (1793170821).
More sports markets the whales bet on
All Sports →| Market | Whale money | Whales | Result | Last whale bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erste Bank Open: Karen Khachanov vs Carlos Alcaraz | $107K | 14 | Won: Carlos Alcaraz | |
| Sioux Falls: Stefan Kozlov vs Murphy Cassone | $118K | 3 | Won: Stefan Kozlov | |
| Erste Bank Open: Cameron Norrie vs Francisco Cerundolo | $53K | 11 | Won: Cameron Norrie | |
| Swiss Indoors Basel: Ben Shelton vs Aleksandar Kovacevic | $57K | 16 | Won: Ben Shelton | |
| Erste Bank Open: Alexander Zverev vs Martin Landaluce | $100K | 19 | Won: Alexander Zverev | |
| Guangzhou Open: Xinran Sun vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew | $152K | 10 | Won: Xinran Sun | |
| Swiss Indoors Basel: Hubert Hurkacz vs Zizou Bergs | $91K | 18 | Won: Hubert Hurkacz | |
| Guangzhou Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Claire Liu | $107K | 12 | Won: Claire Liu |
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?