Determined-Toenail-Widget
Skill vs luck
Determined-Toenail-Widget on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 10%–91%) · profit −$6.4K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 28, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Determined-Toenail-Widget: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 28, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x869909eeaa3637081a7383b177c20dedd7957bb2. Data CC BY 4.0.
Determined-Toenail-Widget: −$6.4K on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 28
- −$6.4K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | SELL Adrian Mannarino @ 45¢ | Erste Bank Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Ignacio Buse ↗ | $18K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Adrian Mannarino @ 70¢ | Erste Bank Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Ignacio Buse ↗ | $22K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Jerome Kym
@ 52¢
Swiss Indoors Basel: Jerome Kym vs Arthur Rinderknech |
Swiss Indoors Basel: Jerome Kym vs Arthur Rinderknech | $6.7K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?