Polymarket market · Other

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?

Open as of the last daily run · See it on Polymarket ↗

8 whales traded $85K on this market since Oct 15, 100% of their buying on Yes. Copying their buys off the order book we recorded about 3 minutes later would have cost 0.7¢ more per share, with 98% of the size there to buy. It hadn't resolved as of the last daily run.

The whales on this market

8 whales
Whale · recordBackedBoughtSold
Plush-Tutu
9 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 96¢ $21K $21K
0x7217…a6c4
1 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 99¢ $11K —
0xd269…6b9a
no settled record
Yes @ 95¢ $10K —
Trained-Notion
4 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 96¢ $7.8K —
Remarkable-Underpass
4 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 97¢ $5.1K —
Hefty-Metabolite
42 settled bets Can't tell from luck
Yes @ 98¢ $3.4K —
Personal-Bake
22 settled bets Can't tell from luck
Yes @ 94¢ $3.3K —
Capital-Melody-Meatball
7 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 98¢ $1.7K —

Where the whale money went

  1. Yes
    $64K
    100% of whale buying · 8 buyers · $21K sold

From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Oct 15 to Oct 17, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the daily run. How profit is counted.

Results and records from the run (1792220425).

More other markets the whales bet on

All Other →
MarketWhale moneyWhales ResultLast whale bet
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? $77K 20 Open
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? $491K 87 Open
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? $69K 17 Open
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? $430K 57 Open
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? $488K 53 Open
Washington vs. Purdue $180K 14 Won: Washington
Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina $81K 11 Won: Appalachian State
Memphis vs. Tulane $86K 16 Won: Tulane
About this data · run 1792220425, computed 2026-10-17 07:00 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1792220425 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed