Polymarket market · Other

Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Open as of the last weekly run · See it on Polymarket ↗

18 whales put $74K into this market since Aug 21, 72% of their buying on Yes. It hadn't resolved as of the last weekly run.

The whales on this market

18 whales
Whale · recordBackedBoughtSold
0x3adf…2380
no settled record
No @ 42¢ $6.2K $12K
0xeb50…be06
no settled record
Yes @ 56¢ $9.9K —
0x5b39…d37f
no settled record
Yes @ 68¢ $9.7K —
0x0ae2…8c70
no settled record
sold only $0 $5.1K
0x891e…3941
no settled record
No @ 30¢ $4.8K —
0x4a9f…7ce9
no settled record
Yes @ 47¢ $4.8K —
0xa8a4…d478
no settled record
Yes @ 64¢ $3.0K —
0xb181…ed02
no settled record
Yes @ 64¢ $2.9K —
Silky-Geometry
191 settled bets Can't tell from luck
No @ 44¢ $2.1K —
0x0da1…1915
no settled record
Yes @ 62¢ $2.0K —
0x95b1…4565
no settled record
Yes @ 77¢ $2.0K —
0x2a85…2c68
no settled record
Yes @ 56¢ $1.9K —
0x8c5e…5afa
no settled record
Yes @ 55¢ $1.6K —
0xf385…ba06
no settled record
Yes @ 44¢ $1.3K —
0x4020…5af8
no settled record
Yes @ 59¢ $1.1K —
0x7054…82b8
no settled record
sold only $0 $1.0K
0x0b52…c4ec
no settled record
Yes @ 68¢ $1.0K —
0xc9f9…c5e8
no settled record
No @ 48¢ $1.0K —

Where the whale money went

  1. Yes
    $40K
    72% of whale buying · 11 buyers · $6.2K sold
  2. No
    $14K
    26% of whale buying · 4 buyers · $12K sold
  3. Yes
    $1.6K
    3% of whale buying · 1 buyer

From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Aug 21 to Oct 8, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the weekly run. How profit is counted.

Results and records from the weekly run (1791223421).

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed