Polymarket market · Sports

Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5)

Resolved: Shelton won · See it on Polymarket ↗

5 whales put $64K into this market since Sep 11, 94% of their buying on Tiafoe. Shelton won. Of the 3 whales whose whole position we captured, 1 made +$2.8K and 2 lost −$56K: −$53K between them.

The whales on this market

5 whales
Whale · recordBackedBoughtSold Made on it
Substantial-Service
670 settled bets Beat the odds*
Tiafoe @ 45¢ $53K — −$53K
Scornful-Gym-Retreat
163 settled bets Beat the odds*
Shelton @ 56¢ $3.5K — +$2.8K
Self-Reliant-Camp
112 settled bets Can't tell from luck
Tiafoe @ 46¢ $2.9K — −$2.9K
Metallic-Use
25 settled bets Can't tell from luck
sold only $0 $2.7K —
Knowledgeable-Peertopeer
22 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $1.5K —

Where the whale money went

  1. Tiafoe lost
    $56K
    94% of whale buying · 2 buyers
  2. Shelton won
    $3.5K
    6% of whale buying · 1 buyer · $4.2K sold

From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Sep 11 to Sep 12, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the weekly run. “Made on it” is what each whale took out plus what its shares paid at the end ($1 for the winner, nothing for the rest), counting only trades we captured. A dash means it sold more than we saw it buy, so part of its position is missing and it's left out of the totals. How profit is counted.

Results and records from the weekly run (1791223421).

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed