Natural-Vacation
0xa8c63f775ddbbe66b56614191747def3021444e8
Natural-Vacation: +$11K on 9 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 67% (95% range 35%–88%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
+$11K
return +180.8%
Settled bets
9
$6.2K staked
Won
66.7%
95% range 35%–88%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$6.5K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$4.5K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$131
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | SELL No
@ 82¢
Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? |
Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | $1.4K |
| Oct 8 | SELL No
@ 96¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? |
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | $2.4K |
| Oct 8 | SELL No
@ 93¢
US recession by end of 2026? |
US recession by end of 2026? | $2.3K |
| Oct 7 | SELL No
@ 84¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | $1.7K |
| Oct 3 | SELL No
@ 80¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | $3.1K |
| Oct 3 | SELL No
@ 80¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | $3.1K |
| Oct 3 | BUY No
@ 90¢
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? |
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? | $3.4K |
| Oct 2 | BUY No
@ 83¢
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? |
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | $1.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.